Greater Chicago & the Midwest
Financial Forecasting for Growing Chicago Businesses
Know where revenue, profit, and cash are heading before the month closes.
We help privately held businesses build practical, driver-based financial forecasts that connect operational assumptions with future financial performance.
- Rolling forecasts
- Driver-based models
- Cash flow visibility
- Scenario planning
Designed for growing businesses generally between $10M and $100M in annual revenue. Serving businesses throughout Greater Chicago and the Midwest.
The core problem
An Annual Budget Is Not a Forecast
Many growing businesses build a detailed annual budget, then spend the rest of the year comparing actual results to assumptions that may be six, nine, or twelve months old.
What changes after the budget is approved
- Customer demand changes
- Pricing changes
- Sales pipeline changes
- Hiring plans change
- Labor costs change
- Material costs change
- Projects are delayed
- Collections change
- Capital spending changes
- Acquisitions or new opportunities emerge
Two different jobs
- Budget
- What management committed to achieve for the year. It sets targets, accountability, and resource allocation.
- Forecast
- What management currently expects to happen given today’s assumptions, pipeline, costs, and operating conditions.
Both are important. Replacing one with the other is where visibility is usually lost.
A budget establishes the plan. A forecast tells management where the business is actually heading.
Five questions
Can Your Current Forecast Answer These Questions?
Where will revenue finish the year?
Where will profit finish based on current operating conditions?
How much cash will the business generate or consume?
What assumptions create the greatest risk to the forecast?
What actions can management take now to improve the outcome?
A useful forecast should not simply predict the future. It should help management influence it.
Warning signs
Signs Your Forecasting Process Needs Improvement
- The company relies almost entirely on the annual budget.
- Forecasts are updated only when management requests them.
- Revenue forecasts are based primarily on broad percentage-growth assumptions.
- Sales and finance have different views of future revenue.
- Headcount forecasts are maintained separately from the financial model.
- Cash forecasts do not connect to the income statement forecast.
- Forecasting requires significant manual spreadsheet work.
- Management does not measure forecast accuracy.
- Business-unit leaders do not own their forecast assumptions.
- The CEO regularly encounters financial surprises.
- Forecast updates take days or weeks to complete.
- Scenario analysis requires rebuilding spreadsheets manually.
If several of these conditions exist, the issue is often not the spreadsheet—it is the forecasting process behind it.
What good looks like
A Forecast Should Reflect How Your Business Actually Operates
Strong forecasting is driver-based. It starts with how the business creates revenue and consumes resources, rather than adjusting historical financial statements by a percentage.
Operationally Driven
Forecasts connect to the real drivers of the business rather than percentage adjustments to last year.
- Sales pipeline
- Backlog
- Customer retention
- Pricing
- Volume
- Utilization
- Labor and headcount
- Capacity
- Projects
- Recurring revenue
Financially Integrated
Operating assumptions flow through the full set of financial statements, so profit and cash stay connected.
- Income statement
- Balance sheet
- Cash flow
Frequently Updated
Assumptions change as the business changes, so the outlook reflects current operating conditions instead of a plan set months ago.
- Monthly or quarterly refresh
- Current-period actuals
- Revised assumptions
Management Owned
Operating leaders understand and own the assumptions affecting their areas, which is what makes a forecast usable in decisions.
- Sales ownership
- Operations ownership
- Functional budgets
- Shared cadence
The best forecast is not the most complicated model. It is the forecast management trusts and uses.
Services
Forecasting Built Around the Decisions Your Business Needs to Make
Revenue Forecasting
- Pipeline-based forecasting
- Backlog forecasting
- Volume and pricing
- Customer-level assumptions
- Retention and churn
- Recurring revenue
- New business
Operating Profit Forecasting
- Gross margin
- Labor
- Operating expenses
- Departmental spending
- EBITDA
- Profitability bridges
Headcount Forecasting
- New hires
- Compensation
- Benefits
- Open positions
- Start-date assumptions
- Workforce scenarios
Cash Flow Forecasting
- Operating cash flow
- Working capital
- Capital expenditures
- Debt service
- Liquidity
- Cash runway
Balance Sheet Forecasting
- Accounts receivable
- Inventory
- Accounts payable
- Debt
- Fixed assets
- Other working-capital accounts
Scenario Forecasting
- Base case
- Upside case
- Downside case
- Sensitivity analysis
- Stress testing
- Management action plans
Forecasting is often delivered inside a broader fractional FP&A engagement, or alongside interim FP&A leadership during a transition.
Rolling forecast
Move From a Static Budget to a Rolling View of the Business
At the end of each month, the completed month is replaced with actual results and the forecast is extended by another month or quarter—so the forward horizon stays constant instead of shrinking as the year progresses.
After March close
- ActualJanuary – March
- ForecastApril – December
- OutlookJanuary – March next year
After April close
- ActualJanuary – April
- ForecastMay – December
- OutlookJanuary – April next year
Most businesses maintain a 12, 15, or 18 month rolling horizon depending on planning needs, sales-cycle length, capital commitments, and lender or investor requirements.
Management should always have a current view of the next 12 months—not just the remaining months of an old budget.
Forecast accuracy
A Forecast Should Get Better Over Time
Measuring forecast accuracy is not about grading managers on estimates. It identifies which assumptions are reliable and which parts of the business need better visibility.
What to measure
- Revenue variance
- Gross margin variance
- EBITDA variance
- Cash variance
- Major assumption variance
A simple example
- Forecast revenue
- $10.0M
- Actual revenue
- $9.6M
- Variance
- $(0.4M)
Was the difference caused by:
- Volume
- Pricing
- Delayed sales
- Customer churn
- Project timing
The goal is not merely to identify the variance. It is to understand the business driver behind it.
Revenue drivers
Revenue Forecasting Should Start With Business Drivers
Different business models require different forecasting methods. The drivers that matter in a manufacturing business are not the drivers that matter in professional services.
Manufacturing
- Units
- Price
- Production capacity
- Orders
- Backlog
- Customer demand
Distribution
- Volume
- Price
- Customer activity
- SKU mix
- Sales pipeline
Professional Services
- Headcount
- Billable utilization
- Bill rate
- Backlog
- Project pipeline
Construction & Specialty Trades
- Backlog
- Project starts
- Installation schedules
- Service revenue
- Maintenance agreements
Recurring Revenue Businesses
- Existing customers
- Retention
- Churn
- New bookings
- Expansion
- Pricing
The forecast should reflect the economics of the business—not force every company into the same template.
Forecasting and cash
Profitability Does Not Automatically Equal Cash
A growing business can increase revenue and EBITDA while cash declines, because growth often requires investment in working capital before the cash returns.
Where profit and cash separate
- Accounts receivable
- Collection timing
- Inventory
- Accounts payable
- Capital expenditures
- Debt service
- Taxes
- Growth investment
The growth sequence
- Revenue growth
- Additional working capital
- Cash requirement
Related: Explore Cash Flow Planning and Profitability Analysis.
Scenario planning
Forecast the Decision Before You Make It
A forecast becomes far more valuable when management can change key assumptions quickly and see the effect on profit, cash, and capacity.
Revenue Down 10%
What happens to profit, cash, and hiring plans?
Labor Cost +5%
What happens to gross margin, pricing requirements, and profit?
Add 10 Employees
What happens to operating expenses, cash, and break-even?
New Location
What revenue and margin are required to justify the investment?
Acquisition
How do purchase price, debt, synergies, and growth affect returns and liquidity?
Scenario planning turns forecasting from a reporting exercise into a management tool.
Process
A Practical Forecasting Process
- 1
Step 1
Understand
- Business model
- Operating drivers
- Management questions
- Data sources
- 2
Step 2
Model
- Practical driver-based model
- Integrated statements
- Documented assumptions
- Usable structure
- 3
Step 3
Validate
- CEO and CFO
- Sales
- Operations
- HR and other functional leaders
- 4
Step 4
Implement
- Forecast cadence
- Assumption ownership
- Review meetings
- Reporting package
- 5
Step 5
Improve
- Measure accuracy
- Refine assumptions
- Simplify inputs
- Extend the forward horizon
We build forecasting processes management can maintain—not models that depend permanently on the consultant who created them.
Cadence
What a Monthly Forecasting Process Can Look Like
The specific timing depends on company size and close speed, but a repeatable monthly rhythm is what keeps the outlook current.
Days 1–7
Close financial results
- Monthly close
- Actuals available
Days 5–10
Update inputs
- Sales pipeline
- Backlog
- Revenue assumptions
- Headcount
- Key operating inputs
Days 8–12
Refresh the forecast
- Revenue
- Profit
- Balance sheet
- Cash
Days 10–15
Review the outlook
- Revenue
- Profit
- Cash
- Risks
- Opportunities
Management review
Decide and commit
- Revised outlook
- Management actions
- Forecast assumptions
Deliverables
Typical Forecasting Deliverables
- Driver-based revenue forecast
- Income statement forecast
- Balance sheet forecast
- Cash flow forecast
- Headcount plan
- Profit bridge
- Forecast versus actual analysis
- Forecast assumptions register
- Base / upside / downside scenarios
- Executive forecast summary
- KPI dashboard
- Forecast accuracy reporting
Fit profile
Forecasting for Growing Private Businesses
Typical client profile
- $10M–$100M in annual revenue
- Privately held or PE-backed
- Existing accounting team
- Limited dedicated FP&A capability
- Growing financial complexity
- Management seeking better future visibility
Why external support
Build Better Forecasting Without Waiting to Build a Full FP&A Team
External forecasting support is rarely about outsourcing finance. It is about adding experienced modeling and process capability to a team that already has plenty to do.
Typical situations
- The Controller is overloaded
- The CFO needs analytical support
- No dedicated FP&A team exists
- The existing forecast model is unreliable
- The company is preparing for growth
- Lender or PE reporting requirements are increasing
- The business is experiencing significant change
What it adds
- Faster implementation
- Experienced modeling capability
- Cross-functional process design
- Management-level interpretation
- Flexible ongoing support
Forecasting also pairs naturally with budgeting and planning when the annual plan needs to be rebuilt on the same driver structure.
Greater Chicago
Financial Forecasting Support Across Greater Chicago
We support privately held companies in the city and throughout the western, northwestern, and northern suburbs.
- Chicago
- Naperville
- Oak Brook
- Downers Grove
- Lisle
- Schaumburg
- Aurora
- Bolingbrook
- Northbrook
- Deerfield
Most forecasting work is delivered remotely, with on-site collaboration where it matters most—driver workshops with sales and operations, management forecast reviews, and board or lender preparation. Broader Midwest engagements are also supported.
FAQ
Forecasting Questions Executives Ask
What is a rolling financial forecast?
A rolling forecast continuously extends the company's financial outlook rather than ending at the fiscal year-end. As each month closes, actual results replace forecast months and an additional month or quarter is added, so management always sees a consistent forward horizon.
How often should a company update its forecast?
Monthly or quarterly updates are most common. The right frequency depends on volatility, business complexity, close timing, and how frequently management needs to make decisions on updated information.
How far into the future should we forecast?
Many middle-market businesses benefit from maintaining a 12 to 18 month forward view. Longer horizons can be useful for capacity, capital, or financing decisions, generally at a lower level of detail.
What is the difference between a budget and a forecast?
A budget reflects what management plans to achieve for the year. A forecast reflects what management currently expects to happen based on today's assumptions and operating conditions. Both matter, and they serve different purposes.
Do we need forecasting software?
No. The right solution depends on company complexity and existing systems. A well-designed Excel or BI-enabled process is sufficient for many middle-market companies; planning software becomes more valuable as entities, users, and data volume grow.
Can you improve our existing forecast rather than rebuilding it?
Yes. Existing models and processes are assessed first, and in many cases targeted improvements to drivers, structure, and cadence deliver more value than a full rebuild.
Do you provide cash flow forecasting?
Yes. Financial forecasts can integrate operating performance with cash flow, working-capital assumptions, capital spending, and debt service so profit and liquidity stay connected.
Can you help with forecasting even if we already have a CFO or Controller?
Yes. Forecasting support frequently complements existing finance leadership by adding dedicated FP&A capacity for modeling, analysis, and process design.
Assessment
How Strong Is Your Current Forecasting Capability?
The FP&A Maturity Assessment evaluates forecasting alongside the other capabilities that determine how well management sees the business.
- Forecasting
- Budgeting
- Cash
- Profitability
- KPIs
- Reporting
- Scenario analysis
- Systems
- Finance partnership
Next step
Know Where the Business Is Going—And What Could Change the Outcome.
Build a financial forecast that gives management a current view of revenue, EBITDA, cash, and the operating assumptions that matter most.
Serving privately held and PE-backed businesses throughout Greater Chicago and the Midwest.